Novo Método Forex Trading 2016 Military

O submundo escuro da negociação de divisas Os investidores de todo o mundo não perderam o apetite ao comércio na era pós-crise financeira. Mas em vez de jogar o sharemarket, eles se consideram comerciantes da moeda global. Isso tem impulsionado o crescimento da correção de câmbio de varejo em uma indústria de 380 bilhões, dobrando desde 2007. A Austrália tornou-se uma cama quente da indústria em virtude de sua cultura comercial e como uma jurisdição segura para que os jogadores locais se comercializem Para comerciantes em todo o mundo. Tal é a popularidade que o volume de negócios diário em alguns dos maiores corretores da Austrália pode exceder o volume total das ações de caixa da Australian Securities Exchange em um determinado dia. O comércio de Forex não é novo, mas as plataformas eletrônicas e a alavancagem extrema às vezes tão alta como 500 a uma podem tornar o par de dólares EuroUS como rebocante como punting em um estoque de centavo. No entanto, apesar de sua crescente popularidade, alguns insiders são inflexíveis, o mundo da corretagem forex tem sido e continua sendo um negócio incontrolável. A tecnologia pode ter reduzido os custos comerciais, mas permitiu que muitas práticas desagradáveis ​​acontecessem em uma escala maior. O pequeno segredo da indústria é a extensão dos lucros comerciais que os corretores ganham, assumindo diretamente seus apostadores muggers. Enquanto algumas plataformas atuam como corretores verdadeiros, outros são mais parecidos com as casas de apostas. Eles entenderam dividir seus negócios com o que é conhecido na indústria como A-books e B-books. O A-book descreve os negócios que o corretor recebe que são transferidos para o mercado interbancário com o corretor cortando um ingresso. O livro alternativo B consiste em negociações que o corretor não passou para o mercado, mas assumiu a si próprio. Por que os intermediários assumiriam seus clientes Porque cerca de 95% dos comerciantes de varejo estão pré-programados para falhar, o que significa que os corretores irão finalmente vencer, levando-os em vez de passá-los para o mercado. A existência de alavancagem aumenta os movimentos nas posições dos clientes, tornando mais provável que uma parada-perda (ordem de venda obrigatória) seja desencadeada, acelerando a perda inevitável. E com corretores negociando contra seus clientes, eles podem possuir a capacidade de inclinar o jogo a seu favor. Isso inclui a inserção de taxas, como o custo de transporte, que os apostadores de varejo têm poucas chances de reconciliação. Também foi sugerido que os corretores podem e ampliam seus spreads de oferta para oferta momentaneamente para atingir as perdas de stop, forçando uma perda no cliente. O livro B traz riscos de que um grande comerciante experiente apostará grande e vencerá, o que significa que as contas maiores são transferidas para o livro A onde o corretor paga uma taxa de um comerciante interbancário. B-booking é um assunto tabu e os corretores são indignos em admitir que se envolvem em apostas contra seus clientes. Mas os insiders estão convencidos de que é parte integrante de vários modelos de negócios de corretores que os obrigaram a negociar constantemente novos clientes. Indústria de casas de comércio de empresas analíticas Como evidência da prevalência de reservas B, uma indústria artesanal de empresas de análise de negócios brotou para ajudar os corretores a identificar quais clientes têm até a menor idéia do que estão fazendo. Eles são então transferidos para o livro A. Existem razões pelas quais os mercados cambiais são particularmente adequados ao modelo de corretagem varejista. E uma grande parte da lógica aconteceu no sentido inverso na última noite de quinta-feira. Os mercados de FX nunca dormem, o que significa que a perda repentina de preços que podem explodir corretores e seus clientes em outros mercados é rara. É por isso que o ex-executivo da Axi Trader e especialista em troca de moeda, Quinn Perrot, acredita que a alta alavancagem de até 400 vezes em certos pares de moedas não é tão perigosa quanto parece. Os mercados cambiais têm alta alavancagem porque comercializam as 24 horas do dia, o que geralmente impede o tipo de lacunas observadas entre o fechamento do mercado e o mercado aberto no mercado de ações, disse ele. Mas, na quinta-feira, o franco suíço não tem como moeda na história. Perrott diz que isso ocorreu porque os negociantes maiores tinham uma visão em que o franco deveria trocar sem a peg. Eles moviam instantaneamente seus preços de mercado para esse ponto, soprando perdas de parada de clientes de corretores. Para um comerciante com 400 vezes alavancagem, um movimento de 30 por cento resultou em uma perda de 1200 por cento. Tais perdas enormes, que excederam os saldos dos clientes por muitos múltiplos, significaram que os grandes problemas estavam com os corretores. Alguns tiveram uma explosão em dívidas incobráveis ​​ou fecharam seus negócios de clientes em diferentes níveis para onde poderiam proteger as exposições. As perdas efetivamente destruíram o maior e terceiro maior corretor forex de varejo e infligiram perdas de milhões de dólares para outros jogadores. Perrott diz que o mau gerenciamento de riscos, muitas vezes confinado a advogados e funcionários das operações presos em um escritório de canto, fez com que os corretores se colapsassem. Ele testou os cenários testados quando o peg foi levantado e rejeitou a afirmação de que o movimento suíço era um evento de choque preto. O que estava faltando é que provavelmente nunca se sentaram com seus gerentes de risco e derrubaram os potenciais efeitos adversos. O derretimento de alguns corretores offshore também levantou a controvertida questão da segregação do cliente. A Austrália impõe restrições difíceis aos corretores de derivativos, mas ao contrário de outros países, os corretores podem usar os fundos dos clientes como garantia. Sobre esta questão, os corretores locais e internacionais estão em conflito. O Australia CFD Forum, que consiste de grandes players globais como a IG Markets e a CMC pressionaram os governos para introduzir segregação de fundos de clientes. Outros corretores, como a Pepperstone, dizem que eles apóiam a segregação do cliente, mas fazem exame da exceção às empresas estrangeiras pressionando para mudanças de regra em seu território doméstico. Os riscos dos fundos de clientes congelados foram evidentes para os clientes locais quando o corretor global MF Global desmoronou em 2011. Ocorreu problemas com apostas fora de pista altamente alavancadas nas taxas de juros européias. Isso e os eventos suíços são lembretes de uma lição, mesmo os maiores jogadores se esquecem frequentemente: os perigos da negociação estão além do que atende aos olhos. Você foi queimado por troca de moeda? Compartilhe sua experiência com jonathan. shapirofairfaxmedia. auLearnToTradeTheMarket (Nial Fuller) Revisão Visite o site Eu tenho negociado os mercados FOREX há pouco mais de dez anos. Os primeiros três anos podem ser caracterizados por tentativa, erro e perda de dinheiro. Ao longo do tempo, fui exposto e aprendi algumas estratégias em que fiquei confiante porque eram consistentemente lucrativas. E agora tenho alguns alunos meus. Quando um dos meus alunos recomendou que eu olhasse para os programas e estratégias da Nial Fuller039, eu estava hesitante. No entanto, meu amigo disse, isso torna ainda mais fácil do que você. Isso, eu tinha que ver por mim mesmo. E fiquei feliz por ter feito isso. Nial Fuller039s está interessado em negociar O programa Marketquot é genial por causa da explicação clara da mecânica de mercado e das estratégias de negociação em uma ordem lógica, seqüencial, bem como para estratégias de negociação simples e fáceis de aplicar, mas consistentemente bem-sucedidas. As estratégias do Nial039 permitem que um comerciante analise os gráficos e veja o que o mercado está fazendo no contexto sem sinais conflitantes. Isso elimina uma paralisação de paralisação e paralisação por uma análise excessiva. Se você é novo na negociação, ou mesmo um comerciante experiente que é novo no FOREX, trabalhando na classe Nial039s, você irá salvar os ANOS da sua curva de aprendizado. Você também terá acesso vitalício a um recurso valioso, e você se tornará um comerciante rentável em uma fração do tempo que de outra forma levaria. Se você é um comerciante intermediário ou avançado, esta classe irá mostrar-lhe um método simples e simplificado no qual você pode olhar através de vários pares de moedas e, dentro de alguns minutos, reconhecer os negócios de alta probabilidade antes de se desdobrarem. Eu posso recomendar confortavelmente o Nial Fuller039 quotLearn To Trade The Marketquot para comerciantes de todos os níveis sem qualificações e sem reservas. Gideon Orbach. Negociante da moeda do quiroprático. Pittsburgh, PA. Aprenda Forex Trading com a completa Forex Trading School, faça dinheiro negociando com Forex com sinais Forex diários gratuitos, comece a negociar mercado cambial com o Market Sharks Sive Morten trabalha para um banco europeu desde abril de 2000. Atualmente, ele é um supervisor De divisão de investimento de risco em seu banco. Sua educação forex e experiência é verdadeiramente vasta. Nesta seção, ele fornece educação forex gratuita de alta qualidade de A para Z. O melhor de tudo, através desta seção, você tem a chance de pedir a Sive Morten qualquer dúvida sobre o mercado forex ou bancário, e obtê-lo respondido GRATUITAMENTE, sem restrições Lições de Sive Morten. Ilustrações de Sergey Kozlyakevich. 942 Tópicos 1,525 Posts Estes sinais de comércio de notícias diárias são o que fez o FPA famoso, simplesmente porque eles são muito simples e podem ser muito lucrativos. Estes sinais gratuitos começaram em 2006 e, a partir de fevereiro de 2013, esses sinais estão sendo escritos por Peter. O FPA espera sinceramente que esses sinais adicionem alguns lucros à sua conta de negociação. 2,483 Threads 12,333 Posts Um lugar para comerciantes de Forex Jornais de negociação pessoais, Forex Trading Systems e Estratégias de pesquisa, Moeda e Previsões de Mercado de Ouro e Artigos Forex Tire um momento para se apresentar, deixe-nos saber quem você é. Não seja tímido, fique confortável. Dizer oi nos faz saber o que você é humano. ) NOTA: Os representantes da empresa podem publicar uma mensagem de Olá, mas se você fizer alguma coisa, remotamente, semelhante a anunciar ou recrutar clientes aqui, o SpamCat irá comê-lo. 1.161 Tópicos 3.064 Posts Apenas começando seus pés molhados com FOREX Post e obtendo respostas para suas perguntas de novato aqui. COMO TODAS AS FOLHAS DE FUNÇÕES COMUNITÁRIAS, NÃO POSSUEM ANUNCIOS AQUI. 1.021 Tópicos 9.476 Posts Prezados comerciantes de divisas, corretores forex e outros provedores de serviços de divisas. Nós não conhecemos você, nós não tomamos partido - nós seguimos os fatos que você fornece. Nós somos dedicados a justiça, paz e juntos somos um exército - o exército de paz Forex conhece o gigante estrangeiro da FPA, Jarratt Davis, que depois de retornar 916.59 ao longo de um período de 6 anos com alavancagem ultra baixa, foi classificado pelo Barclay Hedge 2 no mundo Dentro de sua categoria de negociação forex Andrew Mitchem é comerciante de Forex a tempo inteiro e treinador de Forex que vive perto de Hamilton, Nova Zelândia. Andrew tem negociado os mercados Forex desde 2004 e, em 2009, criou uma empresa de educação chamada The Forex Trading Coach. Ele me diz que mais de 1200 pessoas de 54 países passaram o curso e a taxa de sucesso dos clientes que seguem seu curso é muito alta. Atualizações para os fóruns, revisões, calendário, testes de desempenho e tudo o que é atualizado. 12 Threads 115 PostsMoney Flow Trading Method junto com Risk Management Eu sinto que alguns de nossos comerciantes de Forex aqui podem não ter certeza de como lidar com o STATUS QUO que temos no momento nos mercados. Eu tenho lido o fio EURUSD e o segmento USDJPY e o que eu observei lá é semelhante em ambos os segmentos. Nós temos três tipos de comerciantes de Forex no Forex Factory. Primeiro há aqueles bastante novos para negociar dizer um ano ou menos. Depois, há aqueles com experiência de um a cinco anos e depois os veteranos de cinco anos ou mais. Eu diria que pelo menos 75 de todos os comerciantes de Forex neste site são comerciantes que usam os indicadores técnicos, quer apenas lendo os gráficos para avançar realmente entendendo o Suporte e a Resistência ou Fornecimento e Demanda ou a métodos mais especializados, como Pivot Points. Esse tipo de negociação foi muito mais eficaz antes do colapso durante 2008. Hoje, não é suficiente para fazer lucros constantemente e, se de algum modo, você faz grandes eventos como o Brexit e a Eleição de um novo tipo de presidente e todos os Muitas outras questões complexas por aí em que muitos desses tópicos estão conscientes. Não apontei nada de novo que não tenha dito antes, no entanto, agora tenho uma nova observação por causa do meu novo foco corporativo no ensino de pessoas como talvez se tornar um comerciante profissional de Forex e nem todos possam chegar lá. Então, no segmento EURUSD, você pode ver que a mentalidade é que o EURUSD está voltando para 110.00 e não para 105.00, então eles tentam usar os gráficos para passarem muito e, claro, isso confunde o problema se a TENDÊNCIAS para o EURUSD e o mais provável Seja assim por causa das muitas questões fundamentais e geopolíticas. No segmento USDJPY não entendendo sobre Risco e Risco Desligado e Fluxo de Dinheiro e CORRELAÇÃO eles pensam que o USDJPY provavelmente retornará às 120.00 antes de voltar para 110.00 ou mesmo 105..00. CLARAMENTE, isso não é possível, especialmente quando os mercados da EQUITY se desmoronam e eles vão. Agora fica muito mais claro por que esses comerciantes de Forex acabam com os 95. No entanto, os excelentes comerciantes de Forex que são mais experientes provavelmente fazem bons lucros no entanto, mais de 5 altamente improváveis ​​na minha opinião. Eu poderia estar errado e eu espero que eu seja porque eu quero que todos ganhem dinheiro. Esses tipos de comerciantes de Forex por causa do grande desconhecido que nos falta certamente precisam de uma Grande Estratégia de Gerenciamento de Riscos. Eu tirei um pouco de calor na última semana ou mais, dizendo que NÓS TEMOS uma PROVA DE TESOURO Estratégia de Gerenciamento de Riscos e eu expliquei isso e novamente agora, dizendo o que significa é que garante que um FOOL não pode se tornar um comerciante Forex profissional. Talvez em nosso mundo politicamente correto. Eu deveria apenas dizer em vez de tontos. Uma pessoa tola. Por favor, responda e me dê seus próprios pensamentos na minha postagem e se houver outros tópicos sobre os quais você tenha dúvidas, pergunte-me enquanto eu estou durante todo o dia no meu escritório de casa fazendo muitas coisas dentro e fora do computador. Membro Comercial Ingressou em Dezembro de 2014 1,502 Posts Online Agora Na minha última publicação 1614. Mostrei minhas observações sobre o fio do EURUSD. Acabei de ler o número da publicação 1.088.635 e aqui está o que disse. Quoted ForexIdiot69 Não é incomum para ele correr de frente para um nível e imediatamente reverter sem perder o impulso primeiro. Olhando para o perfil do mercado, acho que provavelmente já estamos impressos hoje baixos, ou estamos perto disso. Especialmente agora que Londres está fechada. Veja essa linha roxa na atual baixa atual. Esse é realmente um ponto de controle a partir do dia 19. Bounce imediatamente, quase perfeitamente. E nós começamos a construir algum valor a preços atuais, pois há volume começando a preencher agora. Oi forexidiot69 prazer em ver o que é o seu indicador em sua plataforma. Acho que seu indicador é bom. Você pode compartilhar para mim. O ponto novamente. NENHUM INDICADOR PODE DIZER O FUTURO com 100 certeza, pois o que você vê é um RAY X e nada mais ou menos . Quando você tem uma mudança na Tendência e não sabe por que a Tendência mudou, você é garantido para sofrer perdas substanciais antes de perceber em retrospectiva o que aconteceu. Isso não pode acontecer aqui desde agora, mesmo muitos de vocês entendem agora que você aprendeu e sabe disso, como eu disse muitas vezes a primeira e mais importante parte de fazer o Forex Trading um negócio e um negócio muito bem sucedido é você mesmo. Para não consolar a KeepCalmfx de todas as qualidades que um profissional precisa da KeepCalmfx. Podemos ver isso pelo fato de que se eu não estivesse por perto da KeepCalmfx poderia continuar. Então, vamos à necessidade de entender MONEY FLOW e por que e nós fazemos e não apenas entendê-lo. Temos 100 lógica e CORRELAÇÃO para apoiar nosso NOVO CONHECIMENTO. Em terceiro lugar, porque todos somos humanos, um erro sempre é possível e provável, então precisamos de PROTEÇÃO de nós mesmos e é aí que a Administração de Riscos vem. Você NÃO PODE TER UMA CHAMADA DE MARGEM se você seguir as regras. Então, chegamos aos Indicadores Técnicos que a maioria ou 75 do Varejo e Outros Comerciantes de Forex profissionais usam. Embora os fundamentos que são NOVAS informações divulgadas pelos economistas, a informação é precisa ou não como o NFP uma vez por mês. (Folha de pagamento não agrícola), certamente MOVE os mercados de moeda e outros mercados de ações e commodities. Os mercados de títulos são a CHAVE para entender o fluxo de dinheiro. Então, agora temos nosso pacote completo e agora é tempo e energia e o tempo para aprender e melhorar .. Todos os comentários são bons comentários. Taxas do tesouro acima como a China vende grande - A tendência continuará 26 de janeiro de 2017 2:05 PM ET Resumo De acordo com os últimos dados de TIC divulgados pelo Tesouro dos EUA, os títulos do Tesouro dos EUA de propriedade de estrangeiros mostraram um declínio de 335,8B de junho a novembro De 2016. Com base em uma revisão dos dados históricos datados de 1967, nunca houve pressão sobre essa magnitude do dólar de entidades estrangeiras no mercado de tesouraria dos EUA. Desde o início de julho até novembro de 2016, a China vendeu 191,5 b nos títulos do Tesouro dos EUA, que totalizaram 57 de todas as vendas líquidas. Este artigo examina as implicações para a grande venda de títulos do Tesouro por entidades estrangeiras na direção futura das taxas do Tesouraria. Eu li um artigo em 23 de janeiro, Hedge Funds Risk Treasuries Wipeout After Bearish Bets Soar. Publicado pela Bloomberg, onde os analistas do JP Morgan Chases, Jay Barry, dizem que o quotfast moneyquot posições especulativas serão prejudicados com o declínio do Tesouraria (NYSEARCA: TLT) (NYSEARCA: SHY) (NYSEARCA: IEF) (NYSEARCA: IEI) (NYSEARCA: GOVT) Futuro intermediário. A tese do investimento baseia-se no fato de que o interesse curto do fundo de hedge no Tesouro de 5 anos (NYSEARCA: SHV) (NYSEARCA: TBT) está atualmente em um nível muito alto e a expectativa é que essas apostas são quase sempre um indicador contrariano como eles Eventualmente, são sobrecarregados por investidores institucionais que, do ponto de vista do volume de dólares, superam as posições dos fundos de hedge. A expectativa do mercado no artigo é lógico, e certamente funcionou como uma posição comercial virtualmente sem falhar ao longo dos últimos 25 anos, particularmente quando o Tesouraria aumenta por qualquer período de tempo superior a 6 meses. E se você olhar para o gráfico abaixo que mostra a mudança da curva de rendimento do Tesouro ao longo dos últimos 6 meses, provavelmente você está tentado a concordar com o ponto de vista com base no rally de retracement nas taxas do Tesouro que começou a registrar o aumento da taxa do Fed em meados de dezembro de 2016. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. RId7thumb. jpg Atualmente, estou cético de que o movimento mais alto nas taxas do Tesouro é mesmo próximo ao topo do mercado neste momento, pelo menos até que haja um sinal claro de quotTrump Rallyquot vai entrar em colapso. Na minha análise de mercado, o re-equilíbrio do portfólio no final do ano e no início de 2017 causou uma oferta institucional no mercado de Tesouraria e um rally de retracement até a semana antes da inauguração de Trumps. No entanto, o mercado permanece teimosamente na atual faixa de 2.50 nos 10 anos, e parece estar pronto para superar o aumento, uma vez que os estoques se movem ainda mais alto após a inauguração do Trump. Eu faço essa afirmação ousada, em contraste com a chamada de JP Morgans, porque a razão fundamental de que as taxas empurradas para os níveis cíclicamente baixos experimentados no início de julho de 2016 foi quebrada e empurrada para trás, e as eleições de Trump marcaram um momento decisivo que enviou A tendência da taxa de juros na direção oposta. No centro da inversão da tendência é a China, e eu compartilho dados neste artigo que mostram que a venda do Tesouro dos EUA pela China é o maior fator contribuinte por trás do grande movimento nas taxas de julho a meio de dezembro de 2016. Espero que essa tendência continue No termo intermediário com o motorista para novos aumentos nas taxas de juros do Tesouro dos EUA, sendo a política comercial citada na América, que é a peça central da administração Trump e, possivelmente, os conflitos de política externa. A grande taxa de câmbio do Tesouro estrangeiro aumenta a taxa de 10 anos Grande parte da imprensa sobre o aumento recente das taxas de juros tende a se concentrar monotonamente nas expectativas de quotinflação e se o crescimento econômico pode suportar aumentos nas taxas do Fed. Dado o mandato do Federal Reserve para combater a inflação e incentivar o pleno emprego nos Estados Unidos, a tendência é compreensível. No entanto, o mercado de títulos do Tesouro, em particular o longo final da curva, na minha experiência é muito mais oferta e demanda orientada em oposição à expectativa conduzida. O mercado de tesouraria dos EUA é a base fundamental para o tamanho da oferta monetária dos EUA, mas, além disso, desde 1971, tornou-se o pool de garantias em que a grande maioria do comércio internacional é apoiada e resolvida. Como resultado, a oferta e demanda de Tesouraria, tanto doméstica como internacional, é um fator chave para determinar as taxas de mercado para títulos do Tesouro de longo prazo. Basta rever as características de crescimento e inflação da economia dos EUA pode ser muito enganosa para alguém tomar uma decisão sobre se deve investir em títulos do Tesouro dos EUA em um determinado momento. Eu fiz este longo prelúdio porque os dados nos últimos 6 meses, quando a nota do Tesouro dos EUA de 10 anos aumentou 88 pontos base, está fortemente correlacionada com um fator primário. Esse fator não foi a inflação ou as expectativas de crescimento econômico dos EUA, embora a imprensa esteja focada em contar a história como se esses fatores fossem os impulsionadores. Como você pode ver no gráfico abaixo, o principal fator tem vendido títulos do Tesouro em grandes quantidades por entidades estrangeiras, tanto soberanas como empresárias. De acordo com os últimos dados TIC divulgados pelo Tesouro dos EUA, os títulos do Tesouro dos EUA pertencentes a estrangeiros mostraram um declínio de 335,8B de junho a novembro de 2016. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. RId9thumb. jpg Com base na minha revisão dos dados históricos datados de 1967, nunca houve pressão nesta magnitude do dólar de entidades estrangeiras no mercado de tesouraria dos EUA. Na verdade, o período de tempo comparável mais próximo foi de novembro de 1999 a março de 2000, quando a propriedade estrangeira declinou em 199B. Como percentual da propriedade total, o declínio de 2016 até agora foi de -5,66, enquanto o declínio do ano 2000 foi muito maior - 18,6. A grande diferença entre os dois períodos de tempo é que as entidades estrangeiras atualmente possuem mais de 42 da dívida norte-americana negociada em bolsa, enquanto que no ano 2000 possuíam apenas 30. A dívida americana negociada em bolsa em março de 2000 também foi muito menor em 3,56T versus 14,4T Hoje, um grande aumento de 4 vezes em apenas 16 anos. No ano de 2000, a nota do Tesouro de 10 anos, depois de aumentar de 5 para 6 em 1999, levando a grandes vendas no exterior no final do ano, continuou a crescer a pico em 6,79 em 1212000, antes de iniciar um declínio que durou muitos anos . A história mostra que o pico final do mercado de ações mais tarde no ano 2000 e a desaceleração econômica de vários anos que se seguiu perseguiram dinheiro de ativos domésticos e internacionais mais arriscados de volta ao Tesouraria dos EUA como um refúgio seguro. Por que os investidores devem se preocupar com uma estatística financeira aparentemente trivial, como a rapidez com que as entidades estrangeiras estão vendendo títulos do Tesouro dos EUA? Porque a figura é um barómetro chave para a direção futura do mercado financeiro dos EUA. Desde o início da década de 1970, as compras de dívida dos EUA por estrangeiros normalmente permaneceram positivas durante o tempo, se analisadas durante um intervalo de 5 meses para suavizar anomalias de curto intervalo (veja a linha azul no quadro abaixo). Staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. No entanto, quando as entidades estrangeiras como um todo se tornaram vendedores líquidos de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA (veja a linha vermelha abaixo de 0), há um padrão histórico claro de pressão ascendente sobre a curva de rendimento do Tesouro e a nota T de 10 anos (veja o curto Ciclo de ano e mês em taxas de tesouraria de 10 anos em vermelho). Estes períodos de tempo também se alinham muito com alguns dos declínios mais dramáticos do mercado de ações, incluindo 1969-70, 1973-74, 1981, 1987, 2000-02 e 2008. No segundo semestre de 2016, a propriedade estrangeira de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA Quebrou dramaticamente, e a taxa de 10 anos respondeu para cima, de acordo com o padrão histórico. A grande questão para os investidores eo sistema financeiro dos EUA é se o padrão de venda desaparecerá, ou é apenas o início de uma tendência piorada. Quem está vendendo títulos do Tesouro dos EUA em grande maneira - China Dada a alta correlação entre o Tesouro de longo prazo ( NASDAQ: VGSH (NASDAQ: VGLT) (NYSEARCA: SCHR) (NYSEARCA: TBF) (NYSEARCA: ITE) (NYSEARCA: TLH) (NYSEARCA: EDV) (NASDAQ: PLW) aumentam os movimentos de taxas ao longo do tempo e o padrão de venda de estrangeiros Entidades, é instrutivo para rever o que os países fizeram a maior venda de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA no segundo semestre de 2016. Provavelmente não é uma surpresa para muitos investidores lendo este artigo, é a China. Desde o início de julho até novembro de 2016, a China vendeu 191,5 b nos títulos do Tesouro dos EUA, que totalizaram 57 de todas as vendas líquidas. Como referência, as entidades chinesas possuíam 1,24T nos USTs quando começaram a vender. Eles venderam 15,4 de suas participações no Tesouro em 5 meses, uma mudança considerável. Staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. Id11thumb. jpg Os vendedores concentrados remanescentes estavam baseados na Bélgica, um país que é um local de proxy conhecido para a atividade do mercado de tesouraria da China nos EUA. Em outras palavras, as vendas da China também foram provavelmente maiores ao longo do período. Outros grandes vendedores estavam localizados no Japão e na U. K. Um dos aspectos interessantes dos mercados financeiros durante esse período é que o dólar americano se fortaleceu, enquanto as moedas da China, Japão e U. K se enfraqueceram em uma base relativa. Normalmente, eu esperaria que uma grande conta financeira executada no Tesouro dos EUA traria um cenário de enfraquecimento do dólar. No entanto, o mercado monetário respondeu ao crescente diferencial de taxa de juros positivo a curto prazo entre esses países sobre as perspectivas de aumentos das taxas de juros do Fed, levando o dólar a ficar ainda mais forte. Durante este período de tempo, os dados mostram que os investidores privados nos EUA captaram principalmente a diferença nas necessidades de financiamento do Tesouraria dos EUA, já que os EUA continuaram a contrair empréstimos a uma taxa superior a 100B por mês. O 2.0T em excesso de reservas no sistema financeiro criado pelo Fed QE durante o governo Obama diminuiu mais de 145B durante o período de tempo e um adicional de 221B no mês de dezembro. O principal declínio provavelmente reflete o pagamento de dinheiro por instituições privadas e investidores para cobrir o déficit de financiamento da dívida dos EUA durante o período de tempo. O backstop da reserva de excesso atualmente sentado no sistema financeiro dos EUA pode ser testado para financiar a agenda Trump muito, muito em breve, particularmente se, como esperado, o fluxo virtuoso de fundos internacionais para os mercados de renda fixa dos EUA continua a ser seco. Curious Timing - Mais de 65B na China US Treasury Sales em novembro Os dados que mostram vendas em grande volume de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA ficam ainda mais interessantes quando você colocou o foco especificamente em novembro de 2016, o mês em que Trump foi eleito. Em novembro, as vendas totais de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA por detentores estrangeiros foram 96.2B. Desse montante, a China representou 69 das vendas líquidas, uma vez que a propriedade do Tesouro diminuiu em 66B. Staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. Id13thumb. jpg O Japão também foi um grande vendedor de rede em novembro em 23B. No entanto, o Japão, ano a ano, não reduziu significativamente o seu 1,1T nas participações do Tesouro dos EUA. O tempo do alto volume nas vendas do Tesouro pela China é curioso e vale a pena tentar entender ainda mais, particularmente tendo em vista o impacto atual sobre a curva de rendimento do Tesouro dos EUA e, provavelmente, o sistema financeiro mundial em geral se continuar. Por que a China vende títulos do Tesouro dos EUA - E, continuará a venda? O longo prazo do mercado de tesouraria dos EUA está testemunhando que as taxas aumentam, e a razão fundamental é maioritariamente ligada a entidades estrangeiras que vendem títulos do Tesouro em grande quantidade, particularmente na China. A questão é, por que agora, e quando a tendência irá parar ou mesmo reverter A tendência de venda do Tesouro começou antes das eleições dos EUA, então as explicações sobre o porquê está acontecendo não podem, com certeza, estar diretamente ligadas à eleição de Donald Trumps. A maioria das informações financeiras que revisei tendem a apoiar o fato de que uma grande parte do declínio pré eleitoral nas participações do Tesouro da Chinas pode ser vinculada a saídas de quoterror e omissionsquot de conta financeira, tipicamente uma captura de todas as categorias para quotCapital Flight. quot existe Também evidencia de um aumento na grande atividade de aquisição de dólares estrangeiros por entidades estatais da China. Um bom exemplo é a aquisição 43B da Sygenta pela entidade estatal ChemChina em 2016, que fechou recentemente. Staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. Id14thumb. jpg Existe também a possibilidade provável de que muitas empresas que emprestaram com baixas taxas de juros baseadas no dólar norte-americano para cobrir operações com base em Yuan foram cobertas inadequadamente à medida que o dólar se fortaleceu e o Yuan se depreciou. Este cenário provavelmente causou a necessidade de muitos desses empréstimos serem chamados e reestruturados em Yuan para evitar novos riscos cambiais se o Yuan continuar seu movimento descendente. Há dados claros que apontam para o reembolso da dívida dos acordos de arbitragem de taxas de juros sendo um fator contribuinte para as vendas de reserva da China em 2015, mas não em 2016. Tesouro de 10 anos provavelmente aumentará enquanto o Trump Rally continuar com todas as razões prováveis ​​que a China Venderia grandes quantidades de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA desde julho de 2016, no entanto, não se aproximam de explicar o aumento da venda em novembro de 2016. Atualmente, categorizo ​​as vendas mais recentes da China como uma mensagem preventiva para a administração Trump que pode ser redigida Da seguinte forma: agora temos a capacidade de mover as taxas de juros sobre sua dívida pública mais alta e nossa moeda menor no processo, em detrimento de seus objetivos como presidente. Se você nos pressiona em Taiwan, na construção de ilhas no Pacífico Sul e em nossas práticas comerciais, sua capacidade de financiar seu governo e o funcionamento de seus mercados de capitais tornar-se-ão cada vez mais difíceis. Muito somado Se houver uma explicação melhor, eu Seja bem vindo aos dados. Eu duvidava seriamente que os chineses estivessem sentados em uma sala em Pequim e debateram suas expectativas de inflação e crescimento econômico nos Estados Unidos em seu processo de tomada de decisão para atingir o botão de venda em 66B no Tesouro em novembro de 2016. Atualmente, vejo o aumento da taxa do Tesouro imediatamente após Trumps Eleição como 1ª rodada de uma tendência a longo prazo que verá as taxas do Tesouraria dos EUA retornar e possivelmente até ultrapassar as normas históricas de 4 no Tesouro de 10 anos. No processo, haverá altos e baixos, mas a tendência cíclica de longo prazo nas taxas do Tesouro de 1980 a 2016 é superada enquanto o plano econômico do Trump estiver sendo seguido. Como o Trump declarou o objetivo de quotMaking bens na América que são consumidos em Americaquot é implementado, o fluxo virtuoso de dólares internacionais para financiar a dívida dos EUA irá diminuir em uma base relativa. No entanto, os níveis de gastos federais provavelmente crescerão mais rápido, e não mais lento do que os 4 anos anteriores, uma vez que os direitos continuam a expandir-se para cobrir o envelhecimento dos americanos, as despesas de infra-estrutura estão na mesa e as necessidades de gastos de defesa estão subindo e não para baixo. Misture este cenário provável com cortes de impostos e você tem uma receita para uma oferta cada vez maior de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA contra um grupo de demanda cada vez menor. Se o Fed intervir à medida que esse cenário se desenrola, e eles vão, eu não espero que seja como um comprador de Tesouraria dos EUA Eventualmente, o quotTrump Rallyquot parecerá mais como o quotTrump Set-upquot, mas até que isso aconteça, a curva de rendimento do Tesouro dos EUA continuará Para elevar mais alto em todos os prazos. No mercado atual, manter a duração do Tesouro em sua carteira de obrigações (NYSEARCA: FTSD) SHY) (NYSEARCA: TUZ) (NYSEARCA: SST) é a única opção de investimento racional na minha opinião. Daniel Moore é o autor do livro Teoria da Relatividade Financeira: Desbloqueando Mistérios do Mercado que o tornarão um Investidor melhor. Todas as opiniões e análises compartilhadas neste artigo são expressamente suas, e apenas para fins informativos e não conselhos para comprar ou vender. Divulgação: Iwe não tem posições em nenhum estoque mencionado, e não há planos para iniciar qualquer cargo nas próximas 72 horas. Eu também escrevi este artigo e expressa minhas próprias opiniões. Eu não estou recebendo compensação por isso (além do Seeking Alpha). Eu não tenho nenhum relacionamento comercial com nenhuma empresa cujo estoque é mencionado neste artigo. Divulgação adicional: A exposição da minha obrigação em títulos de baixo risco é atualmente de duração muito curta, mas não curto o mercado do Tesouraria. Membro Comercial Juntado dezembro 2014 1,502 Posts Online Agora citando KeepCalmfx Obrigado por esta postagem, eu quero perguntar. Se nós tivermos o risco de sair, então entramos em um comércio, agora muitas horas depois, o risco desligado torna-se risco, mas sua posição talvez não tenha movido muito para mover a perda de parada para 250 lucros, então nosso comércio se move - 600 contra nós , Agora há um evento de notícias, então não devemos entrar na segunda posição até depois da notícia e depois é uma questão de risco novamente. Excelente pergunta. Eu pensarei junto com você para dar a melhor resposta. Então, entramos em um comércio com base em um dos nossos 4 Planos Comerciais. Nós entramos com o Risk Off como sabemos a Tendência do nosso comércio. No entanto, antes que possamos reduzir nossa STOP para bloquear pelo menos US $ 250, a tendência de curto prazo reverte se temos em 1 posição ou 2 posições. Então, o que devemos fazer é deixar o mercado o que quer que seja e, por qualquer motivo, mais provável STOP US em 1000 US Loss. That is it then we have taken the LOSS as part of trading Forex being 2 and within our 6 total risk by having 3 positions MAXIMUM on at any one time. I am giving more detail to help others reading this. Now to your actual question. OK here is the right thing to do in all cases. If as in this example you only have one position open then that position has no tie to your next position. That way new factors allow you to decide again FRESH if you are putting on another position. If you know that a fundamental news event is coming then it is the same psychology to not trade until you know if the news will create a Risk On or Risk Off situation. I also am now adding a NEW ELEMENT to our Strategy and the reason for that is what the Dow 30 did today which is continue up although it appears to be reversing now. We probably should use either the Resistance Level on a 15 Minute Chart and Perhaps Pivot Point and if it goes through then we do not put on any more trades until we see a clear reversal. That only applies in extraordinary situations as we have now with the confusion and change of government and the 24 hour Tweets which in no way is a political comment just recognizing the new reality. Please reply and tell me if I have made it clear and any suggestions that you have are welcome. On the company name the first four words are quotForex Learning Edge Corporationquot I will PM you the first word in the corporate name. Excellent USDJPY Chart - With Notes Now I will paste here a post that I read just now about charts to complete my thoughts about comments on both sides of the discussion. Quoting WolGod TRADERS FAIL BECAUSE THEY USE INDICATORS ABOUT PRICE ACTION. Past price action that means NOTHING. The only traders that make money using this crap are risk management specialists that use fibs (for discount) and do some news sentiment work. But reality is even they have no idea really and wont make much as they are too scared to trade a 5m chart. if you use the following stop. - fibs - stochs - macd - renko - gann - elliot wave - trendlines - any other lagging indicator anout PAST price action you are joking, or so all trader that trade with the chart are also very stupid, because price chart is nothing more then past price action. so with your theory you can only use macroeconomic features and economic news to trade in longterm, all other like charts you cant use for trading. i have never heard someone dont use a chart, because it shows only past price action. and offcourse indicators are only price action showed in different kind - so nothing different like the chart, only different if you want so buy your calculating method. COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Here is the correct answer. I have said many many times in a polite way that since most likely 75 of all Forex Traders base their plans around technical indicators that this is one and only one of the reasons, that they cannot be substantial winners or become professional Forex traders. It is very important to use these indicators without any doubt. I could not trade without them. However they cannot be number one in the list of the five parts of successful Forex trading. Dukas Trader I see has been around here anyway since 2010 so he qualifies as having knowledge and experience trading Forex. He also mentions news which we call fundamentals. If a seasoned Forex Trader has Technical skills and fundamental knowledge there are still the THREE MOST IMPORTANT PARTS that She or He might or might not have. However if they do NOT have the DISCIPLINE then they cannot be successful at the level of a full time professional Forex trader such as myself. I was not an overnight success as I started my profession during 2003. The real reason that I only teach fellow Forex traders with a 50,000 US Dollars account is that way I can tell if they possibly have either the skills or the time to devote to learn how to trade Forex properly. That is why I asked the 12 Forex Traders that I taught to open a FXCM UK Demo Account. Some of them dropped out very quickly. Others did not have the time to learn properly. One subscribed to my thread, then unsubscribed then subscribed then finally unsubscribed and then ignored me. I do not post this information to attack him just to make the point that he does not have the trader skills as an individual because of how he acted here. My demo account approach always works to see if the person can be taught or not. At the other end of the scale we have KeepCalmfx who has great skills both in fundamentals and technicals and understands Risk Management and Money Flow. The most important thing that KeepCalmfx has is the work ethic and the DISCIPLINE and the integrity to be a winner trading Forex. In this very difficult business that if approached properly can make you very very wealthy there is no short cuts to success. The biggest problem as I see it that Forex Traders have is that they do not know any other way to trade and sometimes pays for courses or indicators always searching for the Holy Grail which does not exist. However the next best thing is to have quotTHE EDGEquot Then you have an opportunity if you first learn the right trading habits by trading and learning without the normal emotions of FEAR and GREED. Risk Management that always works is the FINAL PROTECTION to not blow your Forex Trading account and on that note trading with two little capital guarantees failure. If you have the right tools and know what you are doing the MINIMUM funds that you need is 10,000 US Dollars. I have traded that and limit myself to no more than two open positions of 100 units. However today myself. I would NEVER trade Forex with less than 50,000 US Dollars as I teach here. This has been a very long post however I think it really makes all the issues very clear as it does with the solution. I would appreciate what you think about this summary of my thoughts on learning and winning and how to avoid failure. COLORFFFFFF importantCOLORFFFFFF importantMostrs fail because of no discicolorcolor P. S. On Edit at 8:48 PM EST. I went back to the thread and saw that Hanover got into the discussion and so without further commentary here is a paste of his post. Good Evening. As I said earlier in the thread, FF is the place where everybody knows more than everybody else. The problem is that its impossible to prove a negative, that quot nobody can use analysis tool X profitably quot. Such a comment merely demonstrates both conceit and ignorance. The most that anybody can realistically say is quot I havent found a way to use it profitably quot. 61623 So its impossible to profit using lagging indicators A fund manager that I employ uses (predominantly) lagging indicators. Ive had money invested with him for 26 months. Every single month has been profitable. Evidence here. You think Ive photoshopped the account statement Enjoy your delusion, it doesnt change the result. 61623 So its impossible to profit using fundamentals I happen to know a gent who was ranked the second best trader in the world by Barclay Hedge, for the six year period 2008-2013. (I have a screenshot from the BH website that I cant post publicly, but if youre that fanatically skeptical that you must see it, contact me privately and Ill e-mail it to you). Guess what He uses FA He trades into and out of news. He also uses macro and sentiment analysis. The only TA he uses is to time his entries (and some exits) from prior areas of buying and selling. At one point he was the head of FX trading for a company that has over 250 million under management. He also has colleagues and students who likewise use FA, and are profitable. 61623 So 99.99 of traders fail Then only 1 in 10,000 is successful. Thats impossible to prove. I know at least 5 traders who are consistently profitable, and Id estimate that, in my 10 years of FX, Ive met and worked with no more than 70 traders. That means at least 7 are profitable, at least in the circles that I move in. Or perhaps were just smarter over here in New Zealand, LOL. After all, our recently retired Prime Minister made much of his 50m fortune as a FX trader working for Merrill Lynch. Theres so much egotistical nonsense posted on trading forums, its foolish to take anything you read seriously. If youre a failed trader, and it makes you feel better by telling the world that nobody else has more expertise and ability than you have, well, sorry to be harsh, but your beliefs and feelings have zero effect on the reality thats going on around you. That Is It For Tonight. Have a GREAT WEEKEND. Ladies and Gentleman Here are our ONLY 4 Trade Plans until March 31, 2017. Quoting mbleska Screenshot1.png2149784 Hi, I took a picture of trades I did last week and I added my comments about the possible problems (as mentioned in post 1420). I have learnt here that it is important to read news about what is going on in the world and try to make sense out of it (even though it takes a lot of time), then one is able to come up with a plan. The other thing is to stick to that plan and not being afraid of a loss. Actually mbleska. for the moment until you are able YOU do not have to take one minute of your time to come up with a plan. We have until March 31, 2017. 4 TRADE PLANS. (1) Short US 30 - 100 units - STOP LOSS - 1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 maybe as high as 1 to 3. Lower stops once you have minimum profit. (2) Short USDJPY - 100 units - STOP LOSS - 1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 and LOWER STOPS to always lock in minimum profit of 250 US Dollars. (3) LONG Gold - 100 Ounces - STOP LOSS - 1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 and as High as 1 to 3. (4) Long Silver - 5000 Ounces - STOP LOSS - S1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 and as High as 1 to 3. THAT IS IT. Just have the DISCIPLINE to do it. AS FOR FEAR OF LOSS. FIRST LEARN ON YOUR 50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK Demo Account. Unless you are really really good now STOP trading Real Funds. This is about learning good habits and getting confidence then you will trade much more effectively with your own funds and I strongly suggest a Minimum Trading Account of 10,000 US Dollars and then you can NEVER have on more than 20 of your capital or no more than 2 positions of 100 units at any one time. From Post 1453 - Our Method For New Readers From Post 1172 - Money Flow Method with Risk Management. I post this again so there is NO DOUBT on How To Trade Forex and Earn Money and Protect Your Capital. Once again. I try hard for everyone to understand all the parts that would guarantee your success if you have the necessary skills and DISCIPLINE. I can not guarantee that you do however I will know for sure by your Forex Trading results. It is up to you not myself as I have done my part and at least three of our Forex Traders are learning well. The three that are working on it and participating. IT IS THAT SIMPLE and that has too be clear so JUST DO IT. I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves is not an EDGE. However using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket of 100 of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it actually is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals. This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes. Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we quotSEEquot the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well. Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constant profitable Forex Traders. which I have named. The 5 Club needs to have. Of course in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it. Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20 to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE. (1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR and their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing the value in it. The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a 50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with 50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10 a month or 120 a year. (2) Money Flow. I have now explained why. (3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or Europe banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be 10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have 10,000 US Dollars trade with. Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially 50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over 100,000 US Dollars. (4) Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO. (5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it. I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 12 Forex Traders using the 50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCM UK or anyone else. There is no reason that an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a 50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS. As always. I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread. Thanks go to Davit for his post summarizing some of the fundamental issues that need to be monitored this coming week. I go through the news calendar usually on beginning of the week like now and anticipate what is coming up. Please do this as business practice never get caught your pants down because you got hammered on news that you were not aware. Monday - All about Japan Monetary policy. Could go either way Tues - CAD GDP projection is positive and CAD could gain specially on crosses. NZD Employment change-Unemployment rate. Negative here would be good for me since I am long on AN Weds - Feds day and their statement could reveal Feds further projections. Could be very bullish for USD or Bearish depending on statement. Thurs - Lots of red news on GBP and I am all hands free trading the pound. Not touching this. Too much uncertainty about Brexit. Friday - NFP - usually a big mover. Try to stay clear and trade after. Why guess the market Patience is the companion of wisdom. Saint Augustine Snippet: To protect citizens from threats as defined by apparatchiks in Brussels. The central authorities in Europe just launched their most important offensive to date in their multiyear War on Cash. The new move comes directly from the European Unions executive branch, the European Commission, which just announced its intention to explore the relevance of potential upper limits to cash payments, with a view to implementing cross-regional measures in 2018. Maximum limits on cash transactions already exist in most European countries, and the general trend is downward. Last year, Spain joined France in placing a 1,000 maximum on cash payments. Greece went one better, dropping its cap for cash transactions from 1,500 to 500. In simple terms, any legal purchase of a good or service over 500 will need to be done with plastic or mobile money. In some countries, the maximum cash limit is significantly higher. For example, in Europes biggest economy, Germany, recent attempts by the government to set a threshold of 5,000 triggered a fierce public backlash. The German tabloid Bild published a scathing open letter titled Hands Off Our Cash, while a broad spectrum of political parties condemned the proposed measures as an attack on data protection and privacy. Cash allows us to remain anonymous during day-to-day transactions. In a constitutional democracy, that is a freedom that has to be defended, tweeted the Green MP Konstantin von Notz. Even Bunderbank President Jens Weidmann criticized the governments proposals, telling Bild (emphasis added): It would be fatal if citizens got the impression that cash is being gradually taken away from them. Germanys neighbor to the south, Austria, has similar reservations about the EUs plans to suppress cash. The Deputy Economy Minister Harald Mahrer said that Austrians should have the constitutional right to protect their privacy. We dont want someone to be able to track digitally what we buy, eat and drink, what books we read and what movies we watch, Mahrer said on Austrian public radio station Oe1. We will fight everywhere against rules including caps on cash purchases, he said. In other words, any attempt by the European Commission to set a mandatory continent-wide limit is likely to be met with fierce resistance at least from some countries. Others are already so far down the path toward a cashless society that theyll barely notice the difference. The financial consultancy AT Kearney predicts that by 2022 there will be more cashless transactions in Europe than those using cash. According to a report by Fung Global Retail amp Technology, nine of the top 15 most digital-ready countries are in Europe. Sweden is hotly tipped to become the worlds first completely cashless economy. It could happen as soon as 2030. Yet even Sweden has seen an enthusiasm gap emerge, mostly along demographic lines, as the Guardian reports : Older people in the rural north, tending to be the least tech-savvy, resent the economic power of Stockholm and Gothenburg, now almost entirely cash-free urban zones. The National Pensioners Organisation is a key player in the Cash Uprising coalition now campaigning to make sure older Swedes can still deposit and remove cash from banks. Some experts fear the emergence of a dystopic two-tier urban realm in which the poorest become cut off from mainstream commercial life by their continued dependence on traditional forms of currency and are only able to trade among themselves. As financial writer Dominic Frisby explains, the beauty of cash is that its a direct and simple transaction between all kinds of different people, no matter how rich or poor. Whats more, theres no middleman involved. One party pays the other party in mutually accepted currency and not a single middleman gets to wet his beak. And to all intents and purposes, its untraceable. Is it any wonder that banks, fin tech firms, credit card companies, central banks, national and regional governments and UN agencies want to pull the plug on physical currency They already have vital technological and generational trends firmly on their side, as a result of which cashs days as a commonly used payment method may well be numbered anyway. They also have the added bonus of widespread public ignorance, apathy, and disinterest. But they still want to hurry the process along, primarily by introducing incremental legislation that makes it harder and harder for law-abiding citizens to pay with cash. For now, the pretext most often wheeled out for this escalating assault on physical currency is the War on Terror, but there are also the familiar bugbears like organized crime, tax evasion and the informal economy. These justifications merely serve to obscure the real ultimate goal: the complete or near-complete technocratic control over the money supply. In a world where every transaction must be electronic (i. e. traceable) and where biometric authentication systems have become the norm, the influence of big banks, corporations, tech firms and governments over our lives will be virtually unlimited. Another important perk of cash is that it limits central banks ability to continue conducting arguably the greatest financial heist of the modern age, i. e. negative interest rate policy (NIRP). As long as cash exists, theres no way of preventing depositors from doing the logical thing i. e. taking their money out of the bank and parking it where the erosive effects of NIRP cant reach it. But perhaps the greatest beauty of cash is that it is one of the last remaining things that gives people a small semblance of privacy, anonymity, and personal freedom in their increasingly controlled and surveyed lives. However, according to the European Commission, privacy and anonymity do not constitute fundamental human rights: prevent(ing) the anonymity that cash payments allow might be viewed as an infringement of the right to privacy enshrined in Article 7 of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights. However, as complemented by article 52 of the Charter, limitations may be made subject to the principle of proportionality if they are necessary and genuinely meet objectives of general interest recognized by the Union or the need to protect the rights and freedoms of others. In other words, to protect European citizens from any threats to general interest identified by the apparatchiks in Brussels, the European Commission can quite simply override the non-fundamental rights of over 500 million people to privacy, anonymity and personal freedom. And its all set to begin in the next year. By Don Quijones, Raging Bull-Shit . The UK, whose people have voted to escape this Union, has other ideas. What they sell is escape: from the laws, rules, and taxes of jurisdictions elsewhere, with secrecy as their prime offering. Worlds Worst Tax Haven Threatens to Expand its Operations COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: For all friends in Europe please be aware of the end game and get involved politically to defend your rights before you lose them. I live in Canada and I guarantee this is one Country that this could never happen in yet be in a situation where they will try before we the public speak out. Snippet: Kremlin Confirms Trump-Putin Call Was quotFriendly, Constructive, Mutually Beneficialquot, Prioritized quotFighting Terrorismquot zerohedgesitesdefau. picture-5.jpg by Tyler Durden Jan 28, 2017 3:14 PM Vladimir Putin reportedly congratulated Donald Trump for officially assuming office and wished him success in his future activities, during the two controversial leaders first conversation since the inauguration. zerohedgesitesdefau. 28trump12.jpg Below is the readout of the conversation between the two leaders per the Kremlin Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on taking office and wished him every success in his work. During the conversation, both sides expressed their readiness to make active joint efforts to stabilise and develop Russia-US cooperation on a constructive, equitable and mutually beneficial basis . Mr Putin and Mr Trump had a detailed discussion of pressing international issues, including the fight against terrorism, the situation in the Middle East, the Arab-Israeli conflict, strategic stability and non-proliferation, the situation with Irans nuclear programme, and the Korean Peninsula issue. The discussion also touched upon the main aspects of the Ukrainian crisis. The sides agreed to build up partner cooperation in these and other areas. The two leaders emphasised that joining efforts in fighting the main threat international terrorism is a top priority. The presidents spoke out for establishing real coordination of actions between Russia and the USA aimed at defeating ISIS and other terrorists groups in Syria. The sides stressed the importance of rebuilding mutually beneficial trade and economic ties between the two counties business communities, which could give an additional impetus to progressive and sustainable development of bilateral relations. Mr Putin and Mr Trump agreed to issue instructions to work out the possible date and venue for their meeting. Donald Trump asked to convey his wishes of happiness and prosperity to the Russian people, saying that the American people have warm feelings towards Russia and its citizens. Vladimir Putin, in turn, emphasised that the feeling is mutual, adding that for over two centuries Russia has supported the United States, was its ally during the two world wars, and now sees the United States as a major partner in fighting international terrorism. The two leaders agreed to maintain regular personal contacts. The conversation took place in a positive and constructive atmosphere. As Putin spokesman Pesko later added, cited by Interfax, the issue of lifting Russian sanctions was not discussed in conversations between the two presidents. We look forward to CNNs (and Chuck Schumers and John McCains) spin on this. zerohedgesitesdefau. 28trump11.jpg IMPORTANT IF IT PROVES TO BE TRUE. debkadynmediaphotos. SafeZones. jpg Syria stands on the threshold of dramatic changes that will directly impact on the strategic and military situation along the Syrian borders with Israel and Jordan, debkafile reports exclusively. They derive from a deal struck this week by US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to establish US, Russian and Turkish security zones in Syria. This scheme will transfer military control of the country to those three powers. Each of them will be responsible for a zone whose borders will be defined and agreed upon by Washington, Moscow and Ankara. As part of this arrangement, all forces from the Iranian military, the pro-Iranian Shiite militias and Hizballah will be required to leave Syria. The US military is to have two security zones one covering the entire area east of the Euphrates River up to the Iraqi border including Kurdish areas (see attached map). This arrangement will partly resurrect the accord reached in late 2015 by US President Barack Obama and Putin, for the division of Syria into areas of influence. All territory east of the Euphrates was allocated to the US, with Russia taking responsibility for all areas west of the river until the Mediterranean coast. Under the new deal, the Turkish area is to stretch about 650 kilometers along the entire Syria-Turkey border and extend between 35 and 50 kilometers into Syrian territory up to Al-Bab, the town where the Turkish military is engaged in its third straight month of fighting for its capture from ISIS. debkafile s military and intelligence sources report that the overriding change on the ground will be the establishment of a second US security zone adjacent to Syrias borders with Israel and Jordan. It means that the approximately 7,500 US special operations forces troops currently in Jordan will be shifted northward into southern Syria. Russia had originally planned to deploy Syrian military, pro-Iranian Shiite militia and Hizballah forces in battles for the capture of land around the cities of Derra and Quneitra on the Syrian side of the Golan. That plan has been dropped and will be superseded by the deployment in southern Syria of US troops accompanied by Jordanian special forces and Syrian rebels, trained by American instructors in Jordanian military camps. Israelis will breathe a sigh of relief over the removal of the threat of Iranian and Hizballah forces being deployed along their northern border with Syria. The Trump-Putin deal for Syria and its ramifications are explored in the coming issue of DEBKA Weekly (for subscribers) out Friday, with especially attention to the way it leaves Iran and Hizballah high and dry. Snippet: Trump, Putin Discuss Real Coordination Against ISIS in Phone Call 28 Saturday Jan 2017 President trump had phone conversations today with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French president Francois Hollande, and Russian president Vladimir Putin. In their 45-minute phone conversation, Trump and Putin Discuss Fighting Terrorism . mishgea. files. wordpress. ngw529amph398 President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone Saturday, setting the agenda for future bilateral relations and agreeing to find time and place for an in-person meeting, the Kremlin said in a statement Saturday. President Trump also spoke by telephone with German President Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, among other world leaders, in conversations where they stressed the importance of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Messrs. Trump and Putin discussed a range of issues, including the conflict in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East and tensions on the Korean peninsula, the Kremlin said. Russia and the U. S. have long been at odds over the war in Syria. The Kremlin has backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while former U. S. President Barack Obama backed the ouster of the Syrian leader. Saturdays Kremlin statement indicated that Mr. Trump might more closely align with Russia in its campaign against Islamic State, or ISIS, and other militant groups in Syria. The Kremlins statement said the two leaders agreed to establish real coordination of Russian and American actions to defeat ISIS and other terrorist groups in Syria. Mr. Putin now views the U. S. as the most important partner in fighting international terrorism, the statement added. President Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held extensive talks about security issues Saturday, with both leaders working to establish a relationship following loaded barbs Mr. Trump leveled at Ms. Merkel during his presidential campaign. The leaders said in a joint statement that they agreed that NATO was an alliance with fundamental importance to the broader transatlantic relationship. Mr. Trump has in the past criticized NATO and suggested the U. S. might pull back its support from the alliance if more countries did not contribute more to defense spending. NATO must be capable of confronting 21st century threats andour common defense requires appropriate investment in military capabilities to ensure all Allies are contributing their fair share to our collective security, their joint statement said, appearing to address the suggestion of a U. S. pullback. Fair Share Contributions Coming from Trump, the statement Our common defense requires appropriate investment in military capabilities to ensure all Allies are contributing their fair share to our collective security reads more like a demand that allies pony up than anything else. I would expect Russian sanctions to be removed within a few months if not much sooner. Mike Mish Shedlock COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: We need to forget the NOISE coming from MSM who are now declared The Official Opposition and they are. We need to listen to facts as they are spoken by World Leaders and then watch what actually happens or does not happen as everything in the GEOPOLITICAL is important to be aware of. Commercial Member Joined Dec 2014 1,502 Posts Online Now Snippet: Submitted by Matt Stoller via The Intercept, In 2011, unemployment was at a near crisis level. The jobless rate was stuck around 9 percent nationally. an unusually high number due to the continuing effects of the financial crash. House Democrats were aghast. With almost five unemployed Americans for every job opening, too many people remain jobless because of a lack of work, not a lack of wanting to work, said Congressman Lloyd Doggett, D-Tex. So in early November 2011, they introduced a bill to reauthorize Federal unemployment benefits, an insurance program designed to aide those looking for work. Behind closed doors at the Federal Reserve however, the conversation struck a different tone. The Federal Reserves mandate is to promote maximum employment , which essentially means: print enough money so that everyone who wants one has a job. Yet according to transcripts released this month after the traditional five-year waiting period, Federal Reserve officials in November 2011 were debating whether unemployment was caused by bad work ethics and drug use rather than by the greatest financial crisis in 80 years. This debate then factored into the argument over setting monetary policy. I frequently hear of jobs going unfilled because a large number of applicants have difficulty passing basic requirements like drug tests or simply demonstrating the requisite work ethic, said Dennis Lockhart, a former Citibank executive who ran the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank. One contact in the staffing industry told us that during their pretesting process, a majority - actually, 60 percent of applicants - failed to answer 0 to the question of how many days a week its acceptable to miss work. The room of central bankers then broke into laughter. Charles Plosser, the president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, cited work ethic as a common complaint he heard in his district, both in rural and inner city areas. A contact of his who owned 60 McDonalds restaurants said passing drug tests, passing literacy tests, and work ethic are the primary problems he has in hiring people. His wife, he noted, had attended a meeting in Philadelphia where employers cited literacy, work ethic, and drugs as impediments to hiring. It was hardly the first time these bankers blamed unemployment on the unemployed, rather than, say, bankers. In an April meeting that year, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeff Lacker told participants that Several firms told us of difficulty finding adequate workers, because they preferred to collect unemployment benefits or cant pass drug tests. He reiterated that point in November, saying that in West Virginia he was told by an employment agency that unquestionably the biggest problem in hiring skilled and unskilled workers was the inability to pass a drug test. Lackers Federal Reserve district includes West Virginia. In August, he again spoke of widespread reports about hard drug use, OxyContin and methamphetamine, in Appalachia and other rural parts of our Districtin particular, Appalachia. Apparently his colleagues responded with laughter again, because he then said Drug abuse and the hardship involved in unemployment arent really laughing matters. Usage, he noted, isnt higher than the national norm in West Virginia. Its hard to pin this down quantitatively, he continued, wondering if there was something meaningful there as a contributor to impediments to labor market functioning. These debates took place within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve body tasked with influencing the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. The debate revealed a split within the Federal Reserve system between hawks who worry more about inflation than unemployment, and doves who believe that too many are going without jobs. Typically, hawks tend to lean to the right politically, and doves tend to lean slightly more to the left. Lacker is one of the most hawkish members of the FOMC, which means he tends to be in favor of higher interest rates and higher unemployment to ward off inflation. In 2015, Lacker ascribed increasing inequality to the lack of college education among the poor Sarah Bloom Raskin, a dovish member of the Board of Governors, countered by saying that unemployment was a function of the financial crisis. The economy remains mired in the worst slump since that of the 1930s, she said. Daniel Tarullo, another dovish Federal Reserve governor appointed by President Obama, called the focus on drug use a red herring. He said, We had that problem 25 years ago, 20 years ago, 10 years ago we have it today and were going to have it 5 years from now. He cited housing debt from the largest housing bubble in history as a core driver of unemployment. The transcripts illustrate how the controversial method of picking Federal Reserve officials plays out in setting monetary policy: The three men who cited work ethic or drug use as a cause of unemployment instead of the financial crash were picked by regional private sector businessmen to lead the local Reserve banks. The Dodd-Frank financial reform law passed in 2010 mandated that the Federal Reserve Board in Washington approve the choices of private businessmen, but the Board has yet to reject any suggested candidates. The board members who cited the financial crash as causing unemployment were appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. The concept of having private business interests selecting public officials has been criticized by experts. As Wharton professor and author of The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve Peter Conti-Brown put it, Its not clear at all that the opaque and obscure process by which the private sector selects the Reserve Bank presidents produces superior central bankers than the public process used to select the remaining principal officers of the United States. This controversial selection process risks having, as he put it, a system for enhancing the influence of certain slices of society on our central banking policy. Lacker and Lockhart are retiring this year. Advocates and experts are putting pressure on the Richmond Federal Reserve to replace retiring Reserve Bank Presidents with someone more attuned to the reality of unemployment. Fed Up, a coalition of advocates seeking to shift the Fed from its traditionally pro-bank policies, is seeking to have the regional bank Presidents picked with more attention to the needs of workers. Jordan Haedtler, deputy campaign manager of Fed Up, lashed out at Lackers comments as related in the newly released transcripts. Even nine years into the recovery, workers are still struggling to get the wages and hours they need, Haedtler said. Yet with unemployment above double digits in huge swaths of President Lackers district in 2011, he was citing anecdotes about drug use and desire to collect unemployment benefits as key reasons why employers werent hiring. Rather than looking for solutions and talking to people who were out of work, he was seeking excuses from employers. President Donald Trump has a number of vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board to fill as well. He has been highly critical of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. He argued, without citing evidence, that she pursued monetary policy goals to help support Barack Obama and elect Hillary Clinton. If Yellen and Tarullo follow custom and step down from their board slots in 2018, Trump could appoint a majority of Federal Reserve board members within two years. Despite the importance of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve keeps the transcripts of internal deliberations of the committee that sets monetary policy out of public view for at least five years. But the people who attend those meetings take other jobs some in the financial services industry. In 2010, incoming House Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa questioned whether it was appropriate for the Fed to withhold its deliberations for so long. If the Feds full transcripts can be released sooner, they should be, he said. The debate in the Fed and within Congress was ultimately resolved. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates low. And in 2011, a new wave of recently elected Tea Party Republicans and Democrats finally compromised on language to cut unemployment benefits. Neither West Virginia senator, Shelley Moore Capito nor Joe Manchin, would comment on Lackers discussion of the West Virginia drug epidemic and its relationship to unemployment. The Appalachia region, including West Virginia, went strongly for Trump in the 2016 election. Morning Thoughts - Daily Quoting Denden2012 There are only 3 options. Buy, Sell or DO NOTHING If you dont know which position to take, take none. Close your platform and enjoy your weekend. Wise words there. Taking positions late into Friday weekend stress, unless there is a clear signal, better to stay on the sidelines and maintain your sanity Im bullish on this pair, my chart is basically same as xfatboi - double bottom following by a breaking of the downtrend. After getting through the current resistance zone, a minimum of 118 seems reasonable. There may be a small retracefurther consolidation before, but I doubt it will be significant. No positioning atm, looking to buy either on a retrace (possibly 114.6 area) or a break past resistance - but all depends on price action. COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS Part of what I do in my teaching is to try something very difficult to do. The above information will help you understand my point of view with confirmed facts so it is much more valuable than just my opinion on the subject. There are very few technical Forex traders that can state with 75 certainty that USDJPY will go to 120.00 and neither can I. However what I can do is state with zero doubt that Money Flows and Correlations will tell me what I need to know to make profits trading currencies. Some of us here on this Forex thread that I started on December 3, 2016 already understand what I have shared on the 84 pages of information. Most of the 24 subscribers to this thread. quotMoney Flow Trading Method along with Risk Managementquot are most likely Forex traders skilled with using all the normal charts and other enhanced methods such as Support and Resistance or and Supply and Demand or and Pivot Points. There can be no doubt from a common sense point of view that this method of trading on its own misleads and confuses the issue of going long or short in this case. USDJPY. I do not need to speculate or guess because I just let the Money Flow decide the matter for me. Even if a human mistake is made than Risk Management protects me from substantial loss. So in conclusion all technical information and fundamental information needs to be put into your Forex trading decisions however unless you use Money Flow Trading and Risk Management the odds of making profits are at least 90 against you. If for some reason you have found your own method of trading Forex that makes you good profits every month than fantastic. DISCIPLINE which is the Forex traders most important asset needs to be in place in order to succeed. Of course if you cannot learn without FEAR or GREED then you are already programmed for failure. Finally to the the subject of EGO. One of my best skills is that I NEVER think that I know it all because the second that I get there than I know nothing at all. We can ALL learn from each other however if we trade with closed minds than the handwriting is already on the wall. Have a great Sunday and a great trading week. Certainty ( a fact that is definitely true or an event that is definitely going to take place) is 100. Confidence is another story. Neither is necessary for trading. To be certain or confident is folly when it comes to trading. Trading is adjusting to what is happening. Certainty (a fact that is definitely true or an event that is definitely going to take place) is 100. Confidence is another story. Neither is necessary for trading. To be certain or confident is folly when it comes to trading. Trading is adjusting to what is happening. Bruce-Lee-Quote-Technique. jpg2161502 EGO is not a good quality. I am sure that you understand what I mean. I just happened to be coming here to my thread to post the following on the same subject that we are not together discussing with an open mind on both sides. Snippet: I seldom trade USD pairs, but FED Yellen is speaking on Wednesday and I always trade USD when she speaks. The pair finished 2016 strongly, rallying 1,750 pips between the November 9th US elections and December 15th. But so far this year, the pair has lost 600 pips. Recent price action suggests that a near-term bottom is in place. The two swing lows between January 17th and the 24th hint at a double bottom pattern. What8217s nice about this formation is that the distance from the two lows to the neckline is almost the same as the distance from the neckline to the objective. The distance from the neckline to the double bottom is approximately 304 pips while the distance from the neckline to the measured objective is 300 pips. Watch for a H4Daily close above the January 19th high at 115.60. Such a close would confirm the reversal pattern and expose the objective at 118.60. USDJPY - 29 JAN 2017 I will make a statement that cannot be challenged since for the moment CORRELATION is the Judge and Jury. I cannot know what Yellen will say or do however I do not that when the DOW 30 goes back below 20,000 and reaches at least 19,500 then USDJPY will be well below 114.00 and probably at 112.00. So the FACT is based on the Dow 30 going down and it will when very soon however that is not my FACT. quotMy Fact or CORRELATIONS FACT is when Dow 30 is at 19,500 then USDJPY is at 114.00 or lower. Have a great day and nice to see you post here since I am no longer permitted to post on the USDJPY thread. Hello friends and not so friendly people. I just got a PM from a Forex Forum Member and since his questions were very good, I just answered him. Now I need to wait 24 hours before I can send another PM. Here is the questions and my answers. I have removed his name for privacy reasons. January 29, 2017 2:19 PM EST Your comments are all excellent and you are well on your way to understanding. Here are the answers to your questions. We can have Risk On or Risk On several times in the day however since I live in Canada when I get up around 5 AM EST. I review what has happened in Asia overnight and what Europe has done from 2 AM EST when Frankfurt opens to the Europe Equity markets at 3 AM EST. The CAC and the DAX and the FTSE being the ones that I monitor. Then I look to North America to the data releases between 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM EST. The CORRELATIONS are INSTANT as Money starts to FLOW from One Asset Class to another whether Risk On or Risk Off. Money Flow is SIMPLE and Direct and can be seen immediately. FED decisions or GEOPOLITICAL situations like Brexit or the Elections in the USA on November 8, 2016, all cause either Risk On or Risk Off and accordingly the Money starts to flow. I hope that I have answered all your excellent questions. I just read the first post in your thread quotMoney Flow Trading Methodquot and was very intrigued regarding the relationship between the concept of quotrisk onquot, quotrisk offquot, money flow intoout-of the DOW and Treasury Bonds, and the strength of the USD against other currencies. Im not by any means an economist and was never interested in the fundamental aspects underlying currency strengths, but by reading several posts between you and TooSlow suggests that you are, and that you have correlations established that give you a strong sense of where the USD is heading. Im making it a high priority to read through your entire thread but could you answer a few questions 1. Are the Fundamental correlations that you use time-frame dependent i. e. is the scenario of quotrisk-onquot played out on a dailyweeklymonthly time frame or is it a process that changes daily And are these correlations exclusively connected to Central Bank decisions (i. e. interest rate decisions), or are other quotperceivedquot factors involved that are quantifiable Thanks so much in advance Commercial Member Joined Dec 2014 1,502 Posts Online Now Snippet: Yellen nor Kuroda nor Carney will Take the Spotlight from Trump 4.bp. blogspot-08xhAeejy. s400eagle. jpg Three major central banks meet in the week ahead, and there are several important reports due out that will give investors more insight into how the economies have begun the new year. However, the uncertainty surrounding these events and data pale in comparison to known and unknown impulses from the new US Administration. On one hand , there is little thus far that should be surprising. The executive orders, like freezing new regulations, are what other presidents have done, including Obama, or ideas that Trump supported during the campaign, like withdrawing from TPP, supporting pipelines, the wall on the Mexican border, not funding international activity the support abortions, and limiting immigration by Muslims. On the other hand, it is not so straight forward. There are no indications that the rhetoric about prosecuting Clinton over her emails is going forward, and in fact, press reports suggest that officials in the new Administration may also be continuing to use private networks and unsecured communication. China has not been cited as a currency manipulator, as Trump had pledged as a Day 1 priority. The freezing of immigrants from several Muslim countries is what Trump supported, but that Saudi Arabia was not on the list, (nor Egypt, Turkey, and Azerbaijan). Despite the role of Saudi nationals in the 911 attack, raises questions even from those who support the initiative. That the freeze includes people with green cards and those in transit, struck many as particularly severe, and a judge sought to limit the impact on some new arrivals. Many airports were scenes of large spontaneous protests. The situation was still playing out Sunday morning. A study by the libertarian Cato Institute found that between 1975 and 2015, immigrants from the seven countries from where immigrants are frozen, have not committed fatal terrorist attacks on US soil. Also, Muslim Americans with family backgrounds in those seven countries have killed no Americans in the past 15 years. When Trump signed the order to officially end the TPP negotiations, he noted that Clinton also opposed the deal, though during the campaign he accused her of being duplicitous and really supporting the final agreement. Trump also express interest going forward in bilateral agreements rather than multilateral arrangements. Couldnt TPP form the basis of a bilateral US-Japan free-trade agreement Investors are also continuing to wrestle with the conflicting views represented by different Administration officials. The President seemed to endorse actions that are defined as torture, but then said he would defer to Defense Secretary General Mattis, who is opposed. What does it mean to say that NATO is obsolete but important Some members of the cabinet are more pro-trade than others, and it is not clear who will be the quotdeciders. quot The rubber meets the road in the middle of March. The debt ceiling is expected to be reached. This is the authorization to pay for what has already largely been spent. It is the bill that comes after the meal. The debt ceiling has been lifted nearly 75 times since the early 1960s. It is part of the US political ritual where Congress uses the debt ceiling as leverage to try to get concessions from the President. The point man for the White House is the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director, Mulaney, who is a deficit hawk. He has gone beyond Trump did in the campaign and suggested that cutting Social Security and Medicare may be necessary. Other campaign promises and other cabinet members are committed to various fiscal actions, including tax cuts and infrastructure, that will likely boost the US deficit (and therefore debt), even if reasonable people differ on the magnitude and duration of the impact. The Mexican peso was the strongest currency in the world last week, despite the escalation of tensions. The Mexican peso bottomed on January 11 and retested the low on January 19. It rose 3.3 last week and closed well. Since it trended higher consistently last week, it is difficult to know if the news that the two Presidents talked after a scheduled meeting was canceled when Mexico refused to pay for the wall that Trump insists upon the building. Some suggest that the pesos recovery was the realization that things could not get worse, though given when the peso bottomed, things have gotten worse, with a suggestion that among things the US could do to get Mexico to pay for the wall was a 20 tariff on Mexicos exports to the US. While this seems far-fetched, as we have noted, the US President can impose a 15 temporary tariff under conditions of a balance payments emergency. Given the complicated continental trade where a part could cross the border several times, the law of unintended consequences risks significant economic dislocations in the US. Other suggest it is the Negotiator in Chief posturing. Consider this: before last weeks pesos gain, since the beginning of 2016, the peso had depreciated by more than a fifth, partly driven seemingly by Trumps comments, which if sustained would seem to offset some of the sting of a tariff. This is Trumps first tangle and one that he prioritized. It is important that he wins it from a political point of view. The wall is of great symbolic value. It is a campaign promise that many of his supporters appear to have taken literally. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings in the week ahead. None of the central banks are likely to take fresh action. Each may be somewhat more upbeat than previous statements. The US economy moderated more than expected in Q4 16 after a 3.5 annualized clip in Q3 16. However, the best measure for underlying economic signal excludes inventories and net exports. This measure of final domestic sales accelerated to 2.5 from 2.1. The Feds statement will also likely recognize that increased inflation expectations. The five-year breakeven is above 2 for the first time in a couple of years, and the three-year breakeven looks set to cross that threshold in the days ahead. The uncertainty surrounding the fiscal initiatives of the new US Administration has not been lifted. It seems unreasonable to expect anything about the balance sheet to be including in the statement. This may be addressed at the mid-March meeting (around the time of the debt ceiling), if not directly than at the press conference. After rallying into the last FOMC meeting, the dollar has pulled back in recent weeks. The euros five-week and roughly 4.4 was snapped last week with a 0.05 loss. Since the last FOMC meeting, the only one of the major trading partners that the dollar has appreciated against is the peso (2.65). It has fallen against the euro (2.8), Canadian dollar (1.4), and Chinese yuan (1.0). The Federal Reserve is unlikely to feel compelled to discuss the dollar. The Bank of Japan meets. The rise in global interest rates is pulling up Japanese rates, requiring the central bank to defend its - 10 bp target range. The BOJ may upgrade its economic assessment after stronger than expected exports and industrial output. It may be too early to expect the BOJ to upgrade its inflation outlook, but even many private sector economists suspect the worst of deflation is passed. The Bank of England meets. Although some talk about the central banks neutral stance, it is still engaged in buying Gilts and corporate bonds. It has been fairly successful in purchasing corporate bonds and may achieve its objective earlier than had been anticipated. There could be some update of operational issues. It is true that the risk of a rate cut has slackened considerably since last summer, and that the next move is likely to be an increase. The decision to keep rates on hold will likely have unanimous support. The risk is that the BOE turns more upbeat at exactly the wrong time. The official forecasts for this year and next are above the median forecast (1.4 vs. 1.2 and 1.5 vs. 1.3 for official vs. median for 2017 and 2018 respectively). US: While the potential to impact the market is strong, the January report has little policy implication. What the Fed decides to do in March will have practically nothing to do with the number of jobs or wage growth in January. It will not change the general perception that while job growth is slowing as full employment is reached, it is sufficiently strong to continue to absorb some slack. The US economy created an average of 180k jobs a month last year after 229k a month in 2015. In Q4 16 average job growth slowed to 165k. The median forecast is for around 175k increase. Average hourly wages will be watched especially closely following the increase in minimum wage in many states and cities at the start of the year. A 0.3 increase after 0.4 in December would be solid. The three, six, and 12-month average is 0.2. However, because of the base effect (0.5 increase last January, the year-over-year rate will likely ease from 2.9. The year-over-year comparison is more likely to improve this month. Last February earnings were flat. Separately, note that auto sales are expected to slow from a cyclical high 18.39 mln annual pace in December. A 17.5 mln unit pace in January would still be solid and a little above last years monthly average even if sequentially it is softer. Eurozone: Headline eurozone inflation is rising. It rose 1.1 year-over-year in December after a 0.6 pace in November. The first estimate for January is expected to be 1.4-15. The ECB target is near but below 2, but Draghi has been emphasizing the core rate which is expected to remain unchanged at a subdued 0.9 pace. It bottomed at 0.6. He is opposed to reconsidering the decision made last month to extend the asset purchases through the end of this year but at a 60 bln euro a month pace rather than the current 80 bln that run through March based on the recovery in oil prices. We have made the point before, and it is worth making again: In lieu of offsetting stimulus policies by Germany, or the structural reforms that Draghi repeatedly demands, Germany inflation running a bit above the periphery is helpful in boosting the competitiveness of the periphery. That said, ideas that an Italian election could be held in June, now that the Court ruling leaves both chambers with a proportional representation system, suggests Italian bonds will continue to underperform. We suspect that the economies and prices will evolve to allow the ECB to consider tapering further in late-Q3 or early Q4. The eurozone also reports its first estimate of Q4 GDP. The data suggests growth of 0.4-0.5 growth, which would keep the four quarter pace steady in the 1.8-1.9 range that has been sustained since the middle of 2015. Growth is not spectacular, but it is solid and above what economists estimate to be the trend pace. The PMIs suggest the momentum has been sustained into early 2017. Unemployment is stubbornly easing in Greece, Italy, and Spain, but in the aggregate the unemployment area in EMU is expected to have remained at 9.8 in December for the third consecutive month. China: Although the Lunar New Year holiday runs through the week, China will report the manufacturing and the non-manufacturing PMI, and Caixin will report its manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing surveys are expected to soften slightly (0.1-0.2 points) with little significance. Both are expanding between 51-52. The non-manufacturing PMI rose 54.5 in December, which was the second best reading (after November 54.7) in a couple of years. Officials in Beijing are likely watching the new US Administration closely, perhaps through the prism of the Chinese saying about killing a chicken to scare the monkeys. The onshore yuan has appreciated by almost 1.0 this month, and the onshore yuan has risen by 1.5. Since the squeeze that appears to have been engineered by the PBOC at the start of January, the offshore yuan is trading at a premium to the onshore yuan, suggesting speculative pull has been neutralized, at least for the time being. The evolution of the relationship in a stronger US dollar environment may be an important test. Commercial Member Joined Dec 2014 1,502 Posts Online Now January 29, 2017 Dear Friends: Re: Klondike Conference Results and Martin Armstrong Speaker at the World Outlook Conference that Klondike is attending - Paid-for Service - The Markets - Day Trading Reporting Discontinued - Points to Ponder - Technology in the Netherlands Klondike Silver Conference Results amp Martin Armstrong Speaker Two (2) weeks ago I alerted you to Klondike Silver Corp . and suggested to start your research in the Company. I directed you to start by reading the Companys PowerPoint and the location of its Projects noted at the Home Page on the Klondike website . Last Sunday, January 22 we started promoting the Company at the Cambridge Resource Investment Conference with the result that the share price went from 0.055 to as high as 0.08 this past week together with excellent Volume. It closed 0.075 on Friday. I am continuing to buy and add to my position in Klondike shares. This Friday February 3 and Saturday February 4 we continue the Klondike promotion by attending the World Outlook Conference here in Vancouver where on both days Martin Armstrong will be a speaker and answer questions by those attending the Conference . I will report on this in my FDNN letter next Sunday. Subscribing to our Paid-for Service There seems to be a problem on our Mining Interactive website to subscribe for our Paid-for From the Desk of Nick Nicolaas (FDNN) letter service. Therefore, if you wish to become a Paid-for subscriber please e-mail me instead at nickmininginteractive . Subscribers to our Paid-for FDNN letter immediately after we make a trade, receive a Message of the Companies we are investing in and as to what we have traded and why we traded it. Our Trades are based on the Martin Armstrong Socrates Trader Level service and the analysis by our Analytic Team. After you receive a Message from us then you can decide if you want to do what we did or not . In addition, our Paid-for subscribers receive heads-up on Private Placements we are partaking in and in which they may wish to participate also. Paid-for subscribers receive the heads-up well before our Free of Charge subscribers receive the information. In Gold there is a Trend change this month and consequently, we have to pay attention to events ahead. The strongest target this week shown in the SOC Array is Wednesday February the 1st for a turning point ahead with a choppy period starting tomorrow January 30th until Tuesday February 7th with each target producing the opposite direction for those seven days. The two main targets to pay attention to are Wednesday February the 1st and Friday February 3rd. The Trend on a Daily Level is Neutral but, mostly Bearish therefore, during these choppy and volatile days extreme caution is advised this week . As expected and predicted by Martin Armstrong, we finally saw the Dow break the 20,000 level this week which was the psychological line in the sand. As MA said in his Blog on Wednesday: The bulk of Americans in the retail world are still not in the market. Our model is showing they will probably remain on the sidelines until the Dow breaks through the 23,000 level. A closing above 20,012 will begin to eat away at the overhead resistance aided by short-covering Day Trading Reporting Discontinued Based on the Trader Level Preview we are privy to, we Day Traded very profitably this week in both the Comex 100 Gold Futures and aided by strong Corporate Profits, especially in the E-Mini NASDAQ 100 Futures . From here on in in we will not bore you with our Day Trading prowess and we will discontinue reporting the results of our Day Trading . Points to Ponder 1) The Breakup of the EU: MA in his Blog quoted Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte who lashed out in Davos, Switzerland at the whole idea of a single federalized government for Europe and said. The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, its buried . My Take: Whereas, I was born in the Netherlands it is nice to hear a Dutchman finally say the things that I have stated well before the EC was formed and that is: the EU is fallacy and will never last. Yes, friends the EU is kaput, finished and over with . 2) MA Blog Jan 26, 2017 . Economic growth comes from CONSUMER spending. Increase the net disposable income and that will jump-start the economy. 3) In his Blog Jan 27, 2017 MA states why a Wall between Mexico and the US will not stop the crises and he suggests the following solutions: Stopping the Drug Trade: A wall will not end the crisis. You can use boats as well. What are the issues First, the purpose of the wall is to stop the drug trade. It will put a dent into it, but it will not eradicate it. Second, is the immigration. There are many people along the border who want to stop the illegal immigration because they bring in kids who then go to school and cause taxes to rise yet these people do not pay income taxes. The solution is very simple. Eliminate income taxes and compel states to survive on consumption taxes. Then it will not matter who is here, everyone will pay their fair share. Stopping Illegal Immigration: If it is really just about illegal immigration, then you can deal with that financially. Many illegal immigrants come to the States to earn money to send home. Prevent sending money to Mexico and you will change the incentives. Any Mexican who in the USA legally, has a bank account and can send money to relatives legitimately. Illegal immigrants would not be able to send money home but then you would probably create a black market. Introduce a market-based Visa system: Lets dig deeper. Many people come to the States for employment. There are many businesses who need labor willing to do hard work for Americans as a rule see that beneath them. Therefore, you have a demand for labor in the United States that goes unfulfilled and you have people willing to be hard workers in Mexico. The solution here is also simple. Introduce a market-based visa system whereby you can buy a visa for such jobs. The employers would gladly pay the fee and you would end smuggling people into the States for those jobs. Stop taxation to create Economic Stability . The ONLY way to create economic stability is to make taxation UNTOUCHABLE. We have to end this Marxist way of running our country. Until that is accomplished, we will always look for band-aids to keep the game going between elections. The ONLY way to create economic stability is to make taxation UNTOUCHABLE . We have to end this Marxist way of running our country. Until that is accomplished, we will always look for band-aids to keep the game going between elections. My Take: Makes sense to me. Seven Interesting Technology Facts in the Netherlands New technology is changing our world at warp speed as these Seven Facts about the Netherlands will show you. With the help of Socrates as interpreted by Martin Armstrong, we will be able to Look over the Horizon to enhance our Financial Future Subscribe and Read Martin Armstrongs Daily Blog HERE Its all about profitable trading Stay Tuned our next Free of Charge From the Desk of Nick Nicolaas (FDNN) letter Forward this message to a friend Cheers from Mining Interactive Corp. Vancouver, Canada, Nick L. Nicolaas Direct: 1 (604) 657-4058 Skype: nicknicolaas nickmininginteractive -------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER Nick L. Nicolaas Mining Interactive Corp. and its Associates (collectively referred to as NLN) are not registered advisers and do not give investment advice. NLNs trading comments are an expression of opinion only. NLN may have an investment in some of the companies or trading instruments NLN mentions or writes about, nothing should be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While NLN believes all statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of NLNs sources. NLN recommends that you consult a qualified investment adviser, one licensed by the appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions and NLN urges you to confirm the facts on your own regarding any trades or companies NLN mentions before making important investment commitments. 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